China’s Noisy Nuclear Submarines

China’s new Jin-class ballistic missile submarine is noisier than the Russian Delta III-class submarines built more than 30 years ago, according to a report produced by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

The report The People’s Liberation Army Navy: A Modern Navy With Chinese Characteristics, which was first posted on the FAS Secrecy News Blog and has since been removed from the ONI web site, is to my knowledge the first official description made public of Chinese and Russian modern nuclear submarine noise levels.

Force Level

The report shows that China now has two Jin SSBNs, one of which is based at Hainan Island with the South Sea Fleet, along with two Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). The Jin was first described at Hainan in February 2008 and the two Shangs in September 2008. The second Jin SSBN is based at Jianggezhuang with the North Sea Fleet alongside the old Xia-class SSBN and four Han-class SSNs.

The report confirms the existence of the Type 095, a third-generation SSN intended to follow the Type 093 Shang-class. Five Type 095s are expected from around 2015. The Type-95 is estimated to be noisier than the Russian Akula I SSN built 20 years ago.

Missile Range

The ONI report states that the JL-2 sea-launched ballistic missile on the Jin SSBNs has a range of ~4,000 nautical miles (~7,400 km) “is capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese littorals.” Not quite, unless Chinese littorals extend well into the Sea of Japan. Since the continental United States does not include Alaska and Hawaii, a warhead from a 7,400-km range JL-2 would fall into the sea about 800 km from Seattle. A JL-2 carrying penetration aids in addition to a warhead would presumably have a shorter range.

Alaska would be in range if the JL-2 is launched from the very northern parts of Chinese waters, but Hawaii is out of range unless the missile is launched from a position close to South Korea or Japan. The U.S. Defense Department’s 2009 report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China also shows the range of the JL-2 to be insufficient to target the Continental United States or Hawaii from Chinese waters. The JL-2 instead appears to be a regional weapon with potential mission against Russia and India and U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

Patrol Levels

The report also states that Chinese submarine patrols have “more than tripled” over the past few years, when compared to the historical levels of the last two decades.

That sounds like a lot, but given that the entire Chinese submarine fleet in those two decades in average conducted fewer than three patrols per year combined, a trippling doesn’t amout to a whole lot for a submarine fleet of 63 submarines. According to data obtained from ONI under FOIA, the patrol number in 2008 was 12.

Since only the most capable of the Chinese attack submarines presumably conduct these patrols away from Chinese waters – and since China has yet to send one of its ballistic missile submarines on patrol – that could mean one or two patrols per year per submarine.

Implications

The ONI report concludes that the Jin SSBN with the JL-2 SLBM gives the PLA Navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability. The authors must mean in principle, because in a war such noisy submarines would presumably be highly vulnerabe to U.S. or Japanese anti-submarine warfare forces. (The noise level of China’s most modern diesel-electric submarines is another matter; ONI says some are comparable to Russian diesel-electric submarines).

That does raise an interesting question about the Chinese SSBN program: if Chinese leaders are so concerned about the vulnerability of their nuclear deterrent, why base a significant portion of it on a few noisy platforms and send them out to sea where they can be sunk by U.S. attack submarines in a war? And if Chinese planners know that the sea-based deterrent is much more vulnerable than its land-based deterrent, why do they waste money on the SSBN program?

The answer is probably a combination of national prestige and scenarios involving India or Russia that have less capable anti-submarine forces.
source : fas

Dmitry Donskoy submarine prepares for future Bulava missile tests

Russia's Dmitry Donskoy strategic nuclear-powered submarine returned on Wednesday from a short sea test run to prepare for upcoming test launches of the troubled Bulava missile.

"The sub left the base in Severodvinsk on Monday to test the readiness of the equipment for future launches of the Bulava missile," a Severodvinsk administration official said, without specifying the date for the next test of the missile.

The Typhoon-class submarine, based at a naval facility in northern Russia's Severodvinsk, is the only vessel in service with the Russian Navy capable of testing the new Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

The Russian military expects the Bulava, along with Topol-M land-based ballistic missiles, to become the core of Russia's nuclear triad.

However, the Bulava's development has been dogged by a series of setbacks, which has officially suffered six failures in 11 tests.

The latest Bulava failure during the launch from Dmitry Donskoy in the North Sea on July 15 was caused by a defective steering system in its first stage, a defense industry source said on Monday.

The future development of the Bulava has been questioned by some lawmakers and defense industry officials, who have suggested that all efforts should be focused on the existing Sineva SLBM.

But the Russian military has insisted that there is no alternative to the Bulava and pledged to continue testing the missile until it is ready to be put in service with the Navy.

The Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM carries up to 10 MIRV warheads and has a range of over 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles). The three-stage solid-propellant ballistic missile is designed for deployment on Borey-class nuclear-powered submarines.(RIA Novosti)

Next Bulava missile test-launch slated for Nov. 24

Russia's troubled Bulava submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) will be test-fired on November 24, a defense industry source said on Monday.

He said the submarine would be launched from the Dmitry Donskoi nuclear-powered submarine in the North Sea.

The Typhoon-class submarine, based at a naval facility in northern Russia's Severodvinsk, is the only vessel in service with the Russian Navy capable of testing the new missile.
The Bulava was last test-fired from the Dmitry Donskoi in the North Sea on July 15, but self-destructed soon after launch due to a defective steering system in its first stage.

The Russian military expects the Bulava, along with Topol-M land-based ballistic missiles, to become the core of Russia's nuclear triad.

However, the Bulava's development has been dogged by a series of setbacks, which has officially suffered six failures in 11 tests.

But some analysts suggest that in reality the number of failures has been considerably greater. According to Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer, of the Bulava's 11 test launches, only one was entirely successful.

The future development of the Bulava has been questioned by some lawmakers and defense industry officials, who have suggested that all efforts should be focused on the existing Sineva SLBM.

But the Russian military has insisted that there is no alternative to the Bulava and pledged to continue testing the missile until it is ready to be put in service with the Navy.

The Bulava (SS-NX-30) SLBM carries up to 10 MIRV warheads and has a range of over 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles).

 Source : rian.ru

Russian military to get 30 new ICBMs, 3 nuclear subs in 2010

Russia's Armed Forces are to receive 30 new ground and sea-launched ballistic missiles, three nuclear submarines, and an assortment of other weapons, the Russian president said on Thursday.

Dmitry Medvedev said the list would also include "five Iskander [tactical] missile complexes, about 300 modern armored vehicles, 30 helicopters, 28 warplanes, one corvette-class warship, and 11 spacecraft."

In his state-of-the-nation address to parliament, Medvedev stressed provision of advanced weapon systems to the military was a priority.

"There is no room for debate here: These weapons simply must be procured," he said.

He instructed the government to put in place an effective contract system to strike the right balance between arms manufactured for export and for domestic needs.

Russian submarine towed to port after engine malfunction

A Russian diesel-electric submarine from the Black Sea Fleet is being towed to the port of Novorossiisk after suffering an engine malfunction during sea drills, a Black Sea Fleet official said.

The Alrosa, a Kilo class diesel submarine, was on a training exercise in the Black Sea on Saturday when it reportedly experienced some problems with its jet propulsion system.

"The submarine is being towed in a surfaced position to the port of Novorossiisk. Its arrival is expected on Monday. Experts will establish the cause of the malfunction there," the source said.

A Russian Navy spokesman earlier said the situation on the submarine was under control and there was no danger to the crew.

He also said the submarine would continue the drills after the problem is fixed.

Alrosa, commissioned in 1990, is the only submarine in active service with the Black Sea Fleet. It is based at a Russian naval base in Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula.

Source : rian.ru